Catholic Vote ‘Essential’ in Election of Next President

Catholics will be a deciding factor in the upcoming Presidential election. Despite recent statements of U.S. bishops against the Democratic Party, current polls show that the Catholic vote matches the general electorate in its recent tilt towards Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

“Deciding who to vote for is one of the most important decisions we make,” said University politics professor Stephen Schneck during Campus Ministry’s CUA on Tap Thursday night, “It is a moral decision.”

A separate event held Wednesday, “A Colloquium on the Catholic Vote,” hosted a panel of five political experts who said exit polls will reveal the true influence of Catholics’ voting decisions and agreed the white Catholic vote will have an impact on the election, most likely in favor of Obama.
The Pew Research surveys, presented by panelist and Pew Research fellow Gregory Smith, revealed Obama has, in recent months, led Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) with white Catholic voters by eight points.

“The recent movement towards Obama has really a broad base,” said Smith who noted even when the Catholic vote, which makes up one fourth of the electorate, was divided into subgroups, such as those who are more devout and those over the age of 50, the trend remained consistent.

Both Smith and White explained only white Catholics are counted in tracking Catholic voting patterns because other races, such as Hispanics, who make up a large part of the Catholic base, bring additional factors and ideas to the voting booth, and usually support the Democratic Party.

The colloquium was held in Keane Auditorium, located in McGivney Hall, and was hosted by the Life Cycle Institute. It was covered by C-SPAN and other national news sources.

The panel consisted of University politics professor John White, Pew Research fellow Gregory Smith, former University professor and current professor of public policy at George Mason University Mark Rozell, author and speechwriter Michael Sean Winters and University sociology professor William D’Antonio.

Obama and McCain are currently tied in polls concerning Catholics who attend church once a week or more often. Obama leads McCain by 13 points in polls of those who attend church less than once a week.

Similar trends, reflecting a preference for Obama over McCain, exist in all subgroups of Catholics, including age and income, according to these polls.

“Regardless of the candidate that is ultimately favored by either of these groups of Catholics, any movement of Catholic preferences we’ve seen over the last month seems to have been in Obama’s direction,” concluded Smith.

This revelation comes at a time when 14 bishops, including several University trustees, have spoken out against the Democratic Party and issued instructions to deny Democratic vice-presidential candidate Joe Biden, a Catholic, Holy Communion. The Democratic Party “risks transforming itself definitively to the party of death” because of its stance on abortion, said University trustee and Archbishop of St. Louis, Raymond C. Burke, to Catholic News Service on September 27.

Many Catholics seem to mirror the general electorate in how they rank issues most important to them, despite these strong instructions.

“The issues that are important to Catholics are the same ones that are important to the electorate overall,” said Smith. “Despite all of the talk about Catholics voting and abortion, it looks like this will be a relatively unimportant issue this election.”

Catholics rank the economy as the most important political issue followed by education, energy, healthcare, terrorism and the war in Iraq, in the same way the electorate as a whole ranks the issues, according to the Pew Research surveys. Abortion was ranked 11 in the list of 12 items, and gay marriage was ranked last, matching almost exactly the preferences of the general electorate.

Smith showed from his Pew Research that despite media attention to Catholic attitudes on this issue, only one in three Catholics ranks abortion as very important, and fewer than one in five ranks gay marriages as most important in this year’s election.

White suggests one reason for this contradiction between the opinions of Church leadership and the actual electorate is the recent trend of low church attendance.

“Recent church attendance is relatively stable but again is characterized by too many empty pews,” said White. “This gives the church less political clout.”

Winters thinks Catholics that are anti-abortion rights may lean towards the Democratic Party in this election.

“I still think that there’s a part of the Catholic vote with a certain view on abortion that will never change and they will continue as members of the Republican Party as the pro-life party,” said Winters.
Winters continued saying, however, Obama’s plans to fix the economy have the potential to decrease the overall abortion rate.

“Most people have abortions because they cannot afford the child and it is heartless to say to a woman who is carrying the child that you don’t have health insurance, but that is not our concern,” said Winters.

Winters suggested Obama may have “the ability to build a Catholic coalition if he is able to first fix the economy and then decrease the abortion rate.”

D’Antonio, on the other hand, believes the Catholic vote is still strictly split, almost exactly down party lines.

“If you are a Catholic totally and opposed to abortion, believe in a strong military and think lots of government spending is a waste, you’re a Republican,” said D’Antonio. “If you are moderately pro-choice, you think military spending should be cut, and believe in the Matthew 25 verse of feeding the hungry and clothing the naked, you are a Democrat.”

Douglas W. Kmiec, former dean of the Columbus School of Law, falls into D’Antonio’s second generalization of Catholic voters. His recent book “Can a Catholic Support Him? Asking the Big Question about Barack Obama” reveals his support for the Democratic candidate.

Whatever direction the Catholic vote swings, Rozell made it clear Catholics are still an important and unique group within the electorate, whose support should be sought after.

“There is still a distinctive identity that sets them apart from conservative Protestants,” said Rozell who believes politicians should look at the two religious groups separately when trying to garner their support.

At CUA on Tap, Stephen Schneck spoke about how Catholics should vote based on the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops letter “Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship” during Campus Ministry’s CUA on Tap.

Schneck referred to the bishops’ letter and called for the voter to make a decision based on careful moral discernment. He also emphasized the importance of transcending ideology and partisanship in choosing where to cast one’s ballot, but to also never support anything the church has declared intrinsically evil.

He added neither candidate in the upcoming election fits the Church’s standard of avoiding the endorsement of any intrinsic evil, which includes many issues from abortion to racism, but with emphasis on those issues regarding life.

“There’s nothing like Catholic Social Teaching that makes both Democrats and Republicans cranky,” concluded Schneck.

Watch the C-SPAN video

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